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November 21, 2008
One Billion HSPA, 103 Million WiMAX Subs by 2013
Contributing Editor In some ways it is unfair to compare WiMAX (News - Alert) with the GSM mobile broadband platforms (HSDPA and LTE). WiMAX is brand new; GSM has a huge installed base; WiMAX sometimes is a fixed technology, sometimes a portable platform, sometimes a mobile technology while GSM primarily is mobile, with incidental fixed or portable use.
For those reasons, forecasts of one billion HSPA subscribers and 103 million WiMAX subscribers by 2013, currently forecasted by Informa (News - Alert) Telecoms & Media, require perspective.
The WiMAX industry has undoubtedly gained significant momentum in the last year, passing a string of key milestones including product certification, the launch of services by major operators such as Sprint Nextel, commitments to WiMAX by key Internet players such as Google, and the long-awaited arrival of WiMAX notebooks and other devices, says Mike Roberts, Informa Telecoms & Media principal analyst.
"In many major emerging markets all the pieces are falling into place for WiMAX, including availability of spectrum, huge pent-up demand for broadband, certification of Mobile WiMAX equipment, and the arrival of new lower-cost devices such as ultra-portable notebooks and netbooks," says Roberts. "For example our forecasts show that WiMAX will account for 24 percent of India's total broadband subscribers by 2013, up from seven percent in 2008."
Still, the rival third-generation HSDPA platform has become a runaway success in many markets worldwide, and emerging rival LTE has accelerated and gained the backing of most of the world's major mobile operators, including Vodafone and China Mobile (News - Alert), Robers says.
A tough fight lies ahead, as global mobile operators are accelerating their LTE (News - Alert) plans. To gain traction in fiercely competitive markets, operators will have to use WiMAX as a platform for innovative new business models, devices, applications and services, Roberts argues.
The global credit crunch also could delay WiMAX launches, a dangerous threat when GSM operators are racing to deploy their own fourth-generation networks.
However Mobile WiMAX still has a significant head-start over the rival LTE platform, which will launch commercially in 2010. "The result is that WiMAX will be the leading next-generation mobile broadband system in 2013, with significantly more subscribers than LTE," Roberts says.
How long that remains true, and where, is the question.
Gary Kim (News - Alert) is a contributing editor for TMCnet. To read more of Gary's articles, please visit his columnist page. Edited by Stefania Viscusi WiMAX FEATURED WHITE PAPERSWiMAX FEATURED POD CASTWiMAX BLOGSApril 28, 2009
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